Big weather change could be on the way for Spain next week

Weather forecaster Jorge Rey, known for using the traditional cabañuelas method to predict weather patterns, says the intense heat could give way to cloudier skies, rain and thunderstorms from September 9

September kicked off with some very intense heat, but the weather could look quite different next week.

Much of Spain is currently experiencing another spell of high temperatures, with the south-west particularly affected. On Thursday September 3, temperatures could reach 43°C in some areas as hot, dry air and Saharan dust continue to affect the country.

But according to Spanish weather forecaster Jorge Rey, a change could be on the way, particularly in the north. Rey, who bases some of his longer-range predictions on the traditional cabañuelas method, is expecting the first signs of a shift from around Wednesday September 9. He says northern areas could see more cloud, wind and rain, although temperatures are not expected to suddenly plunge.

A traditional way of reading the weather

The cabañuelas have been used for generations in rural Spain as a way of trying to predict the weather in the months ahead. The method involves carefully observing the weather during a set period, traditionally the first days of January or August, with each day representing a particular month of the year.

Those following the tradition look at conditions such as rain, sunshine, wind, clouds and changes in temperature, and use those observations to build a picture of what the coming months might bring. Different versions of the method are used in different parts of Spain.

It is a fascinating part of Spanish rural tradition, but it isn't recognised as a scientifically reliable way of forecasting the weather.

Rey has nevertheless built up a large following, particularly since he became well known for his prediction of Storm Filomena in 2021. That has helped to make people curious about what his traditional forecasts have to say when a change in the weather is on the horizon.

For September, Rey says there could be some storms around mountainous areas as the month gets underway, although he expects the more unsettled conditions to arrive around the middle of September.
He says weather systems passing close to Spain could bring showers and thunderstorms, along with cloudier and fresher conditions.

For anyone who has been hoping for a break from the heat, that may sound like welcome news. But summer isn't quite ready to pack its bags yet.

Rey doesn't expect summer to disappear just yet, however, September is likely to bring some noticeable changes rather than the consistently hot weather we have become used to during the past few months.

Interestingly, the computer models used to forecast the weather are also starting to show a change around the middle of September. So, while the cabañuelas use a traditional method rather than a scientific forecast, Rey's prediction is now pointing in the same direction as some of the modern forecasts. For now, though, there is still plenty of summer weather to enjoy. 

Image: X/Jorge Rey